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Interest rates moved sharply higher. Oil prices climbed as tensions in the Middle East intensified. The Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023. And once again, a relatively small group of large technology companies accounted for much of the market’s strength.
The second quarter of 2026 delivered one of the strongest quarterly performances for U.S. and global equity markets since the post-pandemic rebound of Q2 2020, marking a sharp reversal from the volatility and losses that characterized the first quarter.
By late February and into March, geopolitical developments, particularly the escalation of conflict involving Iran, introduced a new layer of uncertainty that reshaped market expectations. What had been a stable environment defined by steady growth and easing inflation became one characterized by rising energy prices, renewed inflation concerns, and questions around the durability of economic expansion.
As 2025 came to a close, markets delivered a reassuring message: even with plenty of uncertainty, the underlying trend remained constructive. The fourth quarter was shaped as much by what investors couldn’t see as by what they could. A record 43-day U.S. government shutdown delayed key economic data just as investors were looking for confirmation on growth, inflation, and interest rates.
In the second quarter of 2025, investors were reminded of a timeless principle: patience pays. After a sharp market selloff in April, those who remained invested saw a powerful rebound, with major indices finishing the quarter at record highs. Amid moderating inflation, resilient consumer spending, and continued momentum in tech—especially AI-related sectors—long-term investors were rewarded for staying the course.
The fourth quarter of 2024 was marked by a volatile performance in U.S. stock markets, with all three major equity indices – the S&P 500, DJIA, and NASDAQ – hitting their all-time highs in early December. The peaks were driven by strong economic data and investor optimism, fueled in part by positive corporate earnings.
The first six months of 2022 have not been smooth sailing. The Fed has taken a few shots at record high inflation, and after recent readings, it seems to be heading in the right direction — downward. However, the question remains, can the Fed can stick the landing of bringing their inflation targets back in line without sending the U.S. economy into recession?
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